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NOVEMBER 2,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

OBAMA CAN'T  CATCH A BREAK – From WaPo:  "While President Obama was in Philadelphia on Sunday for a pre-election rally, Air Force One experienced a 'minor mechanical problem,' the White House said.  Obama traveled on the plane from Washington, D.C., to New Haven, Conn., then to Philadelphia, but it was replaced during his rally at Temple University with another C-32 aircraft, a modified version of the Boeing 757-200 planes the Air Force uses for the president's travel.  'While in Philadelphia, we have transferred to a backup airplane due to a minor mechanical problem with one of the aircraft's flaps,' White House principal deputy press secretary Eric Schultz said. 'This switch to a backup C-32 will not affect our schedule.'"  They didn't even give Obama a coupon for a free night in a hotel.  He's done.

SILVER SPEAKS – Possibly the best-known political statistician has made his prediction.  From The Politico:  "Statistician and political analyst Nate Silver said Sunday that Republicans have a roughly 75 percent chance of winning control of the Senate in Tuesday's election. 'It's still a close election,' said Silver, founder of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog. 'You have six or seven or eight races that could either way … [But] the polls are clear enough that the GOP will probably win the Senate.'  Silver added later that 'signs look fairly poor for Democrats' less than two days out.  The assessment echoed a consensus across the Sunday shows that Republicans will have a good night on Tuesday. The GOP needs to gain six seats to take a majority in the upper chamber."  I can't wait.

ALREADY? – When leftist Bill De Blasio became mayor of New York City, he tried to reassure voters that we wasn't Karl Marx by appointing William Bratton, Rudy Giuliani's first police commissioner, to his old post.  But less that a year after de Blasio's term, Bratton has run into trouble, including trouble with de Blasio's African-American activist wife.  Seems the commish cares about law enforcement more than he ares about political correctness, and that's not the way leftist regimes work.  Word is he's really on the outs with the new powers that be.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him replaced by a token minority, just to keep the Sharpton forces happy.  That would be a shattering blow to the NYPD.

November 2, 2014       Permalink

INCREDIBLE – AT 11:22 A.M. ET:  Remember those Nigerian girls who were kidnapped by an Islamist group.  There is news.  From AP, via the Washington Times: 

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — With a malevolent laugh, the leader of Nigeria’s Islamic extremists tells the world that more than 200 kidnapped schoolgirls have all been converted to Islam and married off, dashing hopes for their freedom.

“If you knew the state your daughters are in today, it might lead some of you … to die from grief,” Abubakar Shekau sneers, addressing the parents of the girls and young women kidnapped from a remote boarding school more than six months ago.

In a new video released late Friday night, the Boko Haram leader also denies there is a cease-fire with the Nigerian government and threatens to kill an unidentified German hostage.

“Don’t you know we are still holding your German hostage (who is) always crying,” he taunts. “If we want, we will hack him or slaughter him or shoot him.”

A German development worker was kidnapped at gunpoint in Gombi, a town in Nigeria’s northeast Gombi in July. Police reported he was ambushed as he drove to work.

COMMENT:  This is the beastly force we are up against.  But notice that the cause of the kidnapped girls has produced virtually no reaction from so-called "women's" groups, who have sold out women in favor of a leftist agenda.  Hey, everything for the Marxist cause.

November 2, 2014       Permalink

IN MARYLAND? – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:  Could this be real?  Maryland is one of the bluest of the blue states.  Dominated by Baltimore, it is safe Dem territory.  But the gubernatorial contest has, very suddenly, become a horse race.  An upset in Maryland would be music.  The odds are still against it, but the trend is unmistakable.  From Fox:   

The campaign for Maryland GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan earlier this week enthusiastically predicted that a win Tuesday would be the surprise, upset victory of the midterm elections.

And it might well be correct.

Left off essentially everybody’s list of hot governors’ races, the tightening Maryland contest has now captured the national spotlight with big outside money and A-list politicians coming in to close the deal for Hogan or Democratic nominee Anthony Brown, who has served eight years as Gov. Martin O’Malley’s lieutenant governor.

That Hogan, a businessman and son of a former congressman, would even be close this late is a surprise.

Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in Maryland. And only two Republicans have held the governor’s office the past four decades.

But a sluggish local economy and years of tax increases by the O’Malley administration -- including an infamous “rain water tax" -- appears to have voters looking for a change.

Brown had led the race by double digits from the start. But recent polls -- including one by The Baltimore Sun in mid-October that indicated Brown ahead by just 7 percentage points -- have shown his lead starting to slip.

However, the turning point seemed to occur after a Republican-sponsored poll released Monday showed Hogan trailing Brown by just 2 percentage points, 46-to-44 percent.

COMMENT:  The problem, of course, is that in states with large cities like Baltimore, Dems have a way of finding votes.  Oh, there's a box of uncounted ballots!  Oh, the tally on that voting machine is wrong.  Let's correct it.  Oh, here comes Aunt Millie to the polling place, even though she died 20 years ago.  Hi, Aunt Mil.  Nice to see you again.

We'll dream of an upset.

November 2, 2014       Permalink

TWO DAYS – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:  The election is 48 hours away.  Actually, that's not quite true.  In many states voting has been underway for weeks.  But the main event is Tuesday.  They start counting on Tuesday night.  New polls, just out this morning, give hope to Republicans.  From NBC: 

Just days before the midterm elections, Republican Senate candidates are in strong positions in three key Southern states, putting the GOP well within striking distance of regaining control of the upper chamber, according to brand-new NBC News/Marist polls.

In Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Alison Grimes by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 48 percent to 44 percent.
And while Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana leads in a three-way contest with 44 percent of the vote, she trails in a hypothetical runoff against either Republican candidate –Rep. Bill Cassidy or Tea Party candidate Rob Maness.

Losses in these states would complicate Democrats’ path to keeping their majority, given that they need to hold Republican gains to fewer than six seats (or seven, if Kansans reject their incumbent senator and the winner caucuses with the Democrats).

COMMENT:  We hope these figures are correct.  There will be a number of last-minute polls, but our side must get out and vote on election day.  It's the only poll that counts.

November 2,  2014     Permalink 

NOVEMBER 1,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:31 P.M. ET: 

IOWA RISING – Some good news.  From the Des Moines Register:  "Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll, which buoys the GOP's hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.  Ernst, a state senator and military leader, enjoys 51 percent support among likely voters. That's a majority, and it's her biggest lead in the three Iowa Polls conducted this fall. Braley, a congressman and trial lawyer, gets 44 percent, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before Tuesday's election."  Leave us we should pray that this holds up.

THE AMATEUR – We have an amateur in the White House, and Americans have caught on.  We also have Democratic amateurs running for the Senate.  From The Hill:  "Kentucky Republicans are knocking Alison Lundergan Grimes for her support from a Hollywood liberal and President Obama fan.  Martin Sheen, who played the fictional President Bartlet on NBC’s 'The West Wing,' has appeared in a video supporting Grimes, who is seeking to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  The Kentucky GOP had circulated a statement criticizing Grimes for appearing with Sheen on Saturday. But a spokeswoman for the Grimes campaign told The Hill that the actor will not be coming to Kentucky."  I wouldn't think so.  Sheen is not a liberal.  He's a leftist.  He's made vile comments about the United States while in other countries.  Grimes is clueless.  And I hope that, on Tuesday, she becomes history.

URGENCY?  IS HE SERIOUS?  From The Hill:  "President Obama called on Michigan voters to head to the polls with 'urgency,' in a rousing speech three days away from midterm elections.  Speaking to a crowd of 6,000 at Wayne State University, the president, who's been sidelined from many Democrats, made his first and only appearance with a Senate candidate on Saturday.  Focusing on economic issues, such as raising the minimum wage, Obama rallied support for Democratic Rep. Gary Peters, expected to win the seat held by retiring Senator Carl Levin and former Democratic congressman Mark Schauer, who is in a tight race for governor.  'I want you to feel a sense of urgency these last three days,' Obama told the crowd as he touted Peters and Schauer."  This from a president who never seems urgent about anything except his own future.

November 1, 2014       Permalink

GOOD NEWS FROM BERKELEY?  ACTUALLY, YES – AT 12:16 P.M. ET:    There has actually been a victory for free speech in the People's Republic of Berkeley.  From the College Fix: 

Is this a turning point for universities which previously chickened out of featuring controversial speakers for graduation ceremonies?

First Miami University stood up for inviting George Will to speak, and now the University of California-Berkeley – which is celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Free Speech Movement this year – is standing by its decision to have Bill Maher speak at the winter commencement.

The school said in a press release it’s ignoring a vote by the undergraduate committee that chooses speakers to disinvite Maher following outrage at his remarks on Islam:

The UC Berkeley administration cannot and will not accept this decision, which appears to have been based solely on Mr. Maher’s opinions and beliefs, which he conveyed through constitutionally protected speech. … More broadly, this university has not in the past and will not in the future shy away from hosting speakers who some deem provocative.

And it’s promising students on the committee that their cowardice won’t bear fruit in the future either:

Finally, the unfortunate events surrounding the selection of this year’s winter commencement speaker demonstrate the need to develop a new policy for managing commencement ceremonies. The new process will ensure that these events are handled in a manner commensurate with our values and enduring commitment to free speech. We will be announcing the new policy as soon as it is ready.

It’s quite a reversal for UC-Berkeley, whose chancellor was roundly criticized this fall for seemingly telling students that civility trumps free speech.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations is pissed, decrying in a press release “the university’s decision to disrespect students … and instead imposing its own will”:

While Mr. Maher has the right to speak whenever and wherever he likes, he does not have the right to have his hate-filled views honored and tacitly endorsed by a prestigious university.

COMMENT:  Berkeley has acted properly, but the damage around the country has been great.  Leftists have been able to block perfectly fine commencement speakers – Ayaan Hirsi Ali at Brandeis, Condi Rice at Rutgers.  The former police commissioner of New York City was prevented from speaking at Brown.

The actions by Berkeley and Miami of Ohio are a start in the fight back to true free speech.  But who will join them?

November 1, 2014       Permalink

VERY CLOSE – AT 11:29 A.M. ET:   Those are probably the best words to describe the latest election predictions.  Logic tells us that the Republicans should be winning by substantial margins, but polls are very tight in most places. 

Even though President Obama is deeply unpopular, the Republican Party isn't winning any popularity contests either.  It does, though, have some excellent candidates this year, like Joni Ernst in Iowa.  What it lacks is a great, popular platform. 

Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate, a crucial goal.  Control of the Senate will block any crazy Obama Supreme Court nominations.  I don't want to see Eric Holder in black robes. 

Some late polling, from CNN, via The Hill:

Two key Senate races remain toss-ups, according to a pair of new polls conducted by CNN, with Democrats holding a slight edge in North Carolina and Republicans up slightly in Iowa.

Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) by 49 to 47 percent in a key Senate battleground, according to a new live-caller poll conducted by ORC International for CNN.
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) has a 48 to 46 percent lead over North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in CNN and ORC's North Carolina poll, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 4 percent.

That libertarian percentage can destroy the Republican shot at that seat.  Makes me furious.

Other recent polling has found a tight contest in both races. Both Hagan and Ernst have had the slimmest of edges in most recent surveys, well within the margin of error.

Democrats likely need to win both contests to have a decent chance of hanging onto their Senate majority next Tuesday.

The live-caller polls of 647 likely Iowa voters and 559 North Carolina voters were conducted Oct. 27-30 and have margins of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

COMMENT:  That last sentence is odd.  It suggests that "likely" voters were polled in Iowa and "voters" (probably registered) were polled in North Carolina.  Polls of likely voters tend to tip Republican because Republicans are more likely to vote.  Polls of registered voters tend to tilt Democratic.

The CNN polls reflect the others.  Tight races.  This election will depend on who votes.  The Democrats have a proved ground game, a get-out-the-vote mechanism.  The Republican ground game is getting better, but is unproved. 

November 1, 2014       Permalink

WHAT THE ELECTION IS REALLY ABOUT – AT 11:14 A.M. ET:  The horror of ISIS is on display once again.  From AP: 

BAGHDAD – Islamic State group extremists lined up and shot dead at least 50 tribesmen and women in Iraq's Anbar province, officials said Saturday, the latest mass killing committed by the group.

The shooting happened late Friday in the village of Ras al-Maa, north of the provincial capital of Ramadi, Anbar councilman Faleh al-Issawi said.

Militants accused men and women of the Al Bu Nimr tribe of retaliating against them after being displaced from their homes when the group seized the Anbar town of Hit last month, al-Issawi said.

"These killings are taking place almost on a daily basis now in the areas under the control of the Islamic State group and they will continue unless this terrorist group is stopped," al-Issawi told The Associated Press.

An official in the Anbar governor's office confirmed the death toll. He spoke on condition of anonymity as he is not authorized to brief journalists.

On Thursday, authorities found the bodies of 48 Sunni tribesmen killed by the Islamic State group in Anbar.

COMMENT:  What strikes me is the Islamic State's relentlessness and craftiness.  It is, if possible, a more committed version of Al Qaeda, far more brutal, and possessed of good tactical planners.  They are also actively recruiting volunteers from abroad.  Further successes, even mass murder, will get them more recruits, if they can show that they're on the winning side.

So far our response to ISIS has been weak and disorganized.  The group appears to adapt quickly to whatever we do. 

We need a change of government here, and we can begin Tuesday.

November 1,  2014     Permalink